How to Lead When the Future Feels Unpredictable
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
The world feels like it’s moving faster than ever. Between shifting markets, political turbulence, and rapid technological changes, leaders today face what experts call liminal experiences, a prolonged state of uncertainty where the old rules no longer apply, but the new ones haven’t taken shape yet.
If you’re leading a team, running a business, or even just trying to navigate your career, this unpredictability can be paralyzing. How do you make decisions when the ground keeps shifting beneath you? How do you inspire confidence in others when you’re not entirely sure what’s coming next?
The good news is that leadership in uncertain times isn’t about having all the answers, it’s about guiding people through the unknown with clarity, purpose, and adaptability. Here’s how you can do it.
Understanding Liminal Experiences
The term liminal comes from the Latin word limen, meaning “threshold.” It describes those in-between moments, like standing in a doorway, neither fully inside nor outside. In business, liminal experiences happen when industries evolve, economies fluctuate, or global events (like elections or crises) create waves of instability.
According to Laura Empson and Jennifer Howard-Grenville in their Harvard Business Review article, these phases are both disorienting and oddly familiar. They force us to let go of old ways without offering a clear replacement. Leaders often feel stuck, pressured to act decisively even when the path forward is blurry.
Why This Matters Now
We’re living in what some call the Age of the Polycrisis, a time where multiple challenges (economic, political, environmental) collide, making predictability nearly impossible. The 2024 U.S. presidential election, for example, added another layer of uncertainty for businesses worldwide.
But here’s the thing, uncertainty isn’t new. Great leaders have always had to navigate uncharted waters. The difference today is the speed and interconnectedness of change. What happens in tech affects finance. What happens in politics affects supply chains. The ripple effects are instant.
How to Lead When Nothing Feels Certain
1. Reaffirm Core Values
When everything else is shaky, your company’s values should be the one constant. People look to leaders for stability, and nothing provides that better than a clear sense of purpose.
Ask yourself:
- What does this organization stand for?
- What principles will never change, no matter the circumstances?
For example, if transparency is a core value, double down on open communication even when the news isn’t great. If innovation drives your culture, encourage experimentation even during downturns. Values act as an anchor when the seas get rough.
2. Assess Where You Are Honestly
Denial is dangerous in uncertain times. Leaders often fall into the trap of pretending things are “normal” to avoid panic. But brushing problems under the rug only makes them worse.
Instead, take a hard look at your current reality
- What’s working?
- What’s broken?
- Where are the biggest vulnerabilities?
This isn’t about fear-mongering, it’s about facing facts so you can adapt. Southwest Airlines, for instance, famously thrived during industry crises because it acknowledged challenges early and adjusted its strategy.
3. Plan for Multiple Futures
Predicting the future is impossible, but preparing for different scenarios isn’t. The best leaders think in terms of options, not fixed plans.
Try this:
- Best-case scenario: What if things go better than expected?
- Worst-case scenario: What if they go terribly wrong?
- Most likely scenario: What’s the middle ground?
Having contingency plans reduces panic when the unexpected happens. Tech companies like Google and Amazon excel here because they’re comfortable pivoting quickly.
4. Communicate More (Not Less)
Silence breeds anxiety. When people don’t hear from leaders, they assume the worst. Even if you don’t have all the answers, keep the conversation going.
A few tips:
- Be transparent: Share what you know and what you don’t.
- Listen actively: Uncertainty affects everyone differently. Hear your team’s concerns.
- Repeat key messages: People need reassurance, especially in chaos.
During the 2008 financial crisis, Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz held open forums with employees to address fears head-on. That kind of openness builds trust.
5. Encourage Small Wins
Big goals can feel overwhelming when the future is hazy. Break them into smaller, achievable steps.
For example:
- Instead of “grow revenue by 30%,” focus on “land three new clients this quarter.”
- Instead of “overhaul the entire system,” start with “test one new process this month.”
Small wins keep momentum alive and prove progress is possible, even in uncertainty.
6. Build a Resilient Team
A leader is only as strong as their team. Invest in people who thrive in ambiguity.
Look for:
- Adaptability: Can they pivot when plans change?
- Problem-solving: Do they find solutions, or just highlight problems?
- Emotional resilience: Can they handle stress without burning out?
Companies like Netflix prioritize hiring self-starters for this reason, they don’t need constant direction.
Final Thoughts
Uncertainty isn’t going away. If anything, it’s the new normal. But great leaders don’t wait for calm waters they learn to sail through the storm.
The key is to focus on what you can control. your values, your communication, and your ability to adapt. When you do that, you don’t just survive unpredictability. You turn it into an advantage.
As Empson and Howard-Grenville put it, liminal times aren’t just challenges, they’re opportunities to redefine what’s possible. The leaders who embrace that mindset will be the ones who shape the future.
